PLANALYTICS: WEATHER CONDITIONS BREWING FOR SEASONAL DEMAND
Oct. 23, 2017
Source: Planalytics news release
In the days leading up to Halloween (10/24/17-10/30/17), colder temperatures compared to recent trends will overtake the Nation's Heartland and push into eastern regions. Temperatures are projected to be colder than LY and normal for most, driving demand for fall merchandise across these areas. The Northeast will be the holdout, maintaining warmer than LY and normal conditions. The cold temperatures along the Southwest Coast will moderate as the week progresses. Approaching Halloween day, the potential for rain exists in the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast. The West will experience drier than normal conditions, supporting store traffic for last minute holiday purchases.
On Halloween (October 31st), expect temperatures to trend colder vs. prior week, LY, and normal across much of North America. The coldest anomalies vs. normal will be focused in the Northwest, Central Plains, and Southeast, supporting demand for jackets, boots, and warm beverages. Above LY and normal temperatures are anticipated in the Southwest, Northeast, and eastern Canada. Despite these regions averaging above LY and normal, temperatures will feel much colder than recent trends, boding well for fall demand. Most 'tricksters' will be treated to dry conditions, allowing for maximum candy collection!
As Halloween falls on a Tuesday this year, a large amount of consumer purchasing and economic activity will take place during the run-up to the holiday. To the dismay of seasonal businesses, October to-date has recorded abnormally warm weather in major population centers across eastern North America. The expected shift to colder conditions will affect what trick-or-treaters will be wearing as well as the types of food and beverages to serve at parties and gatherings.
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), over 179 million consumers in the U.S. plan to celebrate Halloween this year. These consumers are estimated to spend a record $9.1 billion on Halloween related items, with candy, costumes, and decorations representing the most popular categories.
For reference, Halloween last year was the warmest since 1974 in the U.S. and the coldest since 2010 in Canada. Rainfall in the U.S. and Canada was below normal.